Home Iran–Israel War Escalates: Operation Rising Lion & Retaliations

The Opening Strike: Operation Rising Lion

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a coordinated air and covert strike campaign targeting over 100 military and nuclear-related sites in Iran—including high-priority locations like Natanz, Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz. The operation involved around 200 aircraft supported by Musk-style drone sabotage deep inside Iran, allegedly coordinated by Mossad’s covert drone base, dismantling over 30 missile launchers and key air defense systems.

The targets were comprehensive: nuclear enrichment facilities, IRGC command hubs, missile depots, and energy infrastructure. Israel claims it damaged one-third of Iran’s missile launchers and decapitated significant parts of Iran’s nuclear program.

Human toll

• Iran reports approximately 224 civilian deaths and more than 1,000 injuries.
• Independent monitors such as HRANA reported over 1,000 casualties (killed or wounded).

Iran’s Forceful Retaliation

Iran has responded with multiple waves of missile and drone strikes on Israeli territory—best characterized as:

• Missile barrages targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, Rehovot, and Bat Yam, resulting in 24 civilian deaths and hundreds injured.
• A ninth wave of drone attacks struck Tehran late Monday, triggering emergency scramble and alarming media.
• Iran coordinated some strikes with the Houthi movement based in Yemen, expanding the proxy dimension.

Israel’s missile defenses—Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow—have been working nonstop, but there are growing concerns about interceptor stockpiles amid sustained Iranian assaults.

Civilian Impact & Evacuations

• In Tehran, approximately 300,000 people have been advised to evacuate high-risk zones near military and nuclear sites.
• Massive displacement occurred as civilians fled north to safe provinces, paralyzed by fuel shortages, internet blackouts, and panic-stricken highways.
• In Israel, evacuation of around 3,000 residents from high-threat areas is underway.

Leadership in the Crosshairs

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested that assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, might “end the conflict”—a provocative statement drawing global alarm.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi asserted Iran isn’t seeking regional war escalation and would remain defensive unless provoked. He accused Israel of disrupting diplomatic negotiations and urged Washington to push for a ceasefire.

Diplomatic Ripples & Global Risks

• The G7 summit has become a focal point: European leaders are calling for negotiations and restraint. They’ve urged Iran to return to talks, while Netanyahu opposes any ceasefire until Israel’s nuclear, ballistic threats are eliminated.
• Former President Donald Trump has intervened via G7 communiqués, calling for a Tehran evacuation and urging ceasefire talks—though backing Israel’s defensive stance.
• The U.S. military has deployed warships and aerial refuelers to the Eastern Mediterranean as a deterrent against broader regional escalation.

Economic & Regional Consequences

• Crude oil prices have surged ~10% amid fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global energy markets.
• Israel’s shekel and stock markets, somewhat counterintuitively, rallied on confidence in its military strategy.
• Shipping lanes, particularly near the Persian Gulf, are experiencing electronic interference, raising navigational concerns.

What Lies Ahead?

• Analysts caution the campaign could extend into a sustained air war, given both Israel’s air superiority and Iran’s robust missile arsenal (~2,000 missiles, ~350 already launched).
• Potential flashpoints include accidental strikes against strategic shipping lanes, regional proxies like Hezbollah, or miscalculations by US forces.
• Diplomacy faces steep odds: as long as Netanyahu publicly rules out ceasefire and assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader is floated, the war could drag on.

In Summary

This conflict, far more than a skirmish, marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Israel has initiated its most ambitious strike since the 1980s, using hybrid tactics—covert drone sabotage plus waves of airstrikes—to unbalance Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Iran’s retaliation is relentless, waged through missiles, drones, and proxy actors, causing civilian suffering on both sides.

The international community is grappling with how to respond: while some back Israel’s right to self-defense, others—especially in Europe—push for restraint and diplomacy to avoid regional conflagration and global commodity shocks. The U.S. remains a potent factor, balancing military deterrence with political theater at the G7.

With no ceasefire in sight and leaders on both sides staking existential claims, the prospect of this war broadening into a full Middle Eastern war looms large.