Posted on February 18, 2025
The recent high-stakes negotiations between Russia and the United States over the Ukraine war are a watershed moment in diplomatic history. To be convened on February 18, 2025, in Saudi Arabia, the negotiations will decide the fate of Ukraine as the war is set to mark its third anniversary. That the negotiations do not include Ukrainian participation, however, is a dark question regarding whether the negotiations are legitimate and what success they will achieve.
Background of the Negotiations
The background to these negotiations is complex. The war in Ukraine, sparked by Russia’s invasion in February 2022, has created mass-scale military conflict and high-level geopolitical tensions. The US delegation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other top officials. It is the first high-level encounter between Moscow and Washington since President Biden’s summit meeting with President Putin in Geneva prior to the invasion.
The negotiations are taking place when U.S. President Donald Trump has already indicated that he would like an early end to the war, which could be a change in U.S. foreign policy towards a more accommodative policy towards Russia. This has been causing anxiety among European leaders, who fear that any deal negotiated outside of their involvement—or that of Ukraine—will destabilize and undermine regional security.
Ukraine’s Exclusion
Among the characteristics of these negotiations is the exclusion of Ukraine from them. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already made it public that Ukraine would not be a signatory to any agreements made without it, emphasizing that negotiations “about Ukraine without Ukraine” are meaningless. This stance is a manifestation of a broader fear in Kyiv that its sovereignty and territorial integrity can be bargained away in negotiations in which it is not involved.
Zelenskyy’s position is highlighted by concerns that America would be prone to offering Russia concessions in exchange for a settlement. The leaders in Ukraine recognize all too clearly that their existence depends on that of the U.S., not just militarily but diplomatically. As Zelenskyy prepares for individual talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he does so with intent to tap into the situation in the continuing talks while underscoring the indispensable position Ukraine occupies in whatever settlement.
European Affairs
Exclusion of European countries and Ukraine from such negotiations has rung an alarm bell across Europe. The leaders convened in Paris just days before the negotiations to craft a response, with alarm at the implications for European security architecture. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has described this as a turning point in European security, demanding increased defense budgets and a more assertive role in NATO.
European leaders fear that an American-Russian agreement would lead to a diminished NATO presence in Eastern Europe and would give Russian ambitions within the region beyond Ukraine a boost. NATO expansion after the Cold War has been controversial in the past; Russia views this as interference within its sphere of influence, while Western countries view it as a requirement for the region’s security.
The Stakes Ahead
While negotiations continue in Riyadh, there is also going to be more being negotiated by the two parties aside from Ukraine, such as the renewal of Russian-U.S. bilateral relations. Lavrov has already indicated Russia’s agenda for an extensive dialogue to cover different areas of international relations, and it is possible that Moscow might seek concessions regarding the NATO presence in Europe as well in the quid pro quo.
While Rubio portrayed the negotiations as a test of Russia’s intentions for peace, Lavrov’s statement suggests there will be a tougher stance to be taken by Moscow. Whether the talks yield any results or not is anyone’s guess, but there remains doubt in common opinion about them being able to bring lasting peace.
Conclusion
The second round of U.S.-Russian diplomatic negotiations regarding Ukraine is a test and a challenge for international diplomacy. Since the Ukrainian government is left out and European allies are openly apprehensive, the validity of any agreement signed will be aggressively tested. With Riyadh in the international spotlight, the stakes are high for Ukraine as well as international and global European geopolitics. To this end, it is imperative that all stakeholders—most importantly, the stakeholders directly involved themselves—see to it that their grievances are heard during any peace talks towards ending this long-standing crisis. The way forward will depend on juggling rival interests with the greatest care and devotion to rigorous adherence to international standards of sovereignty and territorial integrity.